Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.541863 5.415918 6.385923 7.538394 8.866268 10.344095 12.108954
2025-03-30 3.244007 4.413073 5.857898 7.756312 10.164273 13.094338 16.904210
2025-04-06 2.390704 3.653613 5.367065 7.817564 11.179988 15.572928 21.675724
2025-04-13 1.812699 3.076853 4.939958 7.807080 12.011063 17.835629 26.373075
2025-04-20 1.555299 2.884829 4.984013 8.413191 13.714935 21.406735 33.158187
2025-04-27 1.290929 2.608209 4.828795 8.664098 14.889018 24.303997 39.229947
2025-05-04 1.101097 2.407866 4.746483 8.992746 16.187127 27.470605 45.938451
2025-05-11 0.903969 2.142480 4.496082 8.985909 16.917760 29.799782 51.533994
2025-05-18 0.713201 1.838490 4.113280 8.675368 17.078456 31.204004 55.753879
2025-05-25 0.552736 1.553491 3.707436 8.248232 16.962674 32.110321 59.199484
2025-06-01 0.454729 1.382954 3.496753 8.154388 17.419772 33.998199 64.381235
2025-06-08 0.374210 1.231487 3.295451 8.043057 17.818705 35.798459 69.520165
2025-06-15 0.340928 1.198579 3.360708 8.511750 19.417521 39.922900 79.094838
2025-06-22 0.291766 1.106665 3.271205 8.634935 20.347321 42.910211 86.887921
2025-06-29 0.245763 1.008696 3.146690 8.659741 21.076137 45.578066 94.290940
2025-07-06 0.205445 0.914079 3.010088 8.633200 21.688759 48.064618 101.520685
2025-07-13 0.195797 0.921473 3.149071 9.288291 23.837403 53.696567 114.991468
2025-07-20 0.174001 0.877096 3.134450 9.559436 25.161084 57.780340 125.755403
2025-07-27 0.157342 0.846285 3.152859 9.916367 26.710630 62.422022 137.861727
2025-08-03 0.133535 0.776496 3.038852 9.908651 27.415594 65.377308 146.838046
2025-08-10 0.106552 0.679568 2.816174 9.570588 27.300815 66.606924 152.454565
2025-08-17 0.082420 0.581825 2.564225 9.105473 26.819970 67.009548 156.410436
2025-08-24 0.068426 0.526872 2.445007 9.003244 27.224531 69.350410 164.461712